Stepan Kubiv: a 3% GDP growth will preserve in 2019
On July 11, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved forecasts for the economic and social development of Ukraine for 2019-2021 drafted by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine.
"In 2016-2017, due to well-weighed steps, the Government managed to stabilize the economy and regain a growing trend of 2.4% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017. Positive dynamics prolonged in Q1 of 2018 as well – a GDP growth made up 3.1%. The current trends of the country's development remain within the projected frames and expected to further maintain a positive dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators. This has been possible to achive due to the enhanced investment activity, growing incomes of the population and a gradual reduction of inflation rate", commented on the indicators of the approved forecast First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine/Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine Stepan Kubiv.
Under the Forecast, the conditions for functioning of the Ukrainian economy for the period of 2019-2021 will be generally characterized by favorable conditions in world markets and the implementation of the state economic policy with supporting macro-financial stability.
The baseline scenario of the Forecast contains average rates and as realistic as possible. They take into account the moderate and corrected response of the Ukrainian economy to those reforms being pursued by the Government. The baseline scenario is the least risky and proposed to be taken as a basis of budget calculations for 2019.
The Ministry of Economic Development plans GDP growth at the level of 3.2% on the outcomes of 2018.
In the first (baseline) scenario, real GDP will increase by 3% on the results of 2019, by 3.8% in 2020 and by 4.1% in 2021. It is expected that in 2021, real GDP growth will exceed pre-crisis rates and will amount to 101.6% against 2013 showings.
In 2019-2021, domestic price increases will gradually slow down, from 7.4% in 2019 to 5% in 2021. On the outcomes of 2018, inflation will make up 9.9%.
It is also expected that the unemployment rate will drop from 8.9% in 2019 to 8.3% in 2021.
Total value exports of goods and services in 2019-2021 will grow by an average of 8.7% per annum (in 2019 - by 8.3%).
Economic growth in 2019-2021 in the baseline scenario will be ensured, mainly, through the expanding of domestic consumer and investment demand.
In general, the forecast macroeconomic indicators in the baseline scenario are in line with the IMF projected indicators.