The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine hosted a discussion on macroeconomic analysis and forecasting among leading specialists in the field of macroeconomic forecast of the government and non-government sectors. Following the outcomes of the discussion, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade released the regular issue "Ukraine: Prospects for Development. Consensus-Forecast" (September 2018).
It is a known fact that consensus forecast is the averaged value of the main forecast indicators of development of Ukraine's economy, which is calculated as the median basing on expert assessments drawn by the participants of the survey conducted among leading specialists in the field of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.
Thus, experts who participated in the discussion of the macroeconomic forecast expect GDP growth at 3.1% in 2018, 3% in 2019, 3.1% in 2020 and 3.9% in 2021.
Experts also project a decline in consumer prices (in the period from December to December of the previous year) at 9.5% in 2018, 7.4% in 2019, 6% in 2020 and 5% in 2021.
Among the main risks for the Ukrainian economy during the forecast period, experts have identified:
• External risks: failure to receive the planned IMF financing, lack of external financing and reduced access to international capital markets, increasing hybrid threats to Ukraine's national security, in particular, active military confrontation in the eastern part of the country.
• Internal risks: an increase in devaluation trends in the foreign exchange market, unsufficient speed of implementation of reforms, and the preserved low credit activity of commercial banks.
Complete forecast "Ukraine: Prospects for Development. Consensus-Forecast" (September 2018) is available at the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine (Ukrainian version).