Ukraine will need USD 524 billion for recovery and reconstruction over the next 10 years – new RDNA4 assessment released

On 25 February, the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations released the results of the updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4).

As of 31 December 2024, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine over the next decade is estimated at USD 524 billion. This figure is approximately 2.8 times the projected nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2024 and is higher than the needs estimated at USD 486 billion a year ago.

In 2025, with the support of donors, the Government of Ukraine has allocated USD 7.37 billion to address priority areas such as housing, education, healthcare, social protection, energy, transport, water supply, demining and civil protection. The total financing gap for recovery and reconstruction needs in 2025 is USD 9.96 billion. The mobilisation of the private sector remains critical to Ukraine’s successful recovery.

“For the third year in a row, the Government of Ukraine, with the support of international partners, has been implementing a rapid assessment programme that allows us to plan economic recovery more systematically. And we see that the scale of losses continues to grow every year. USD 524 billion is a colossal amount. We are extremely grateful to our partners for their financial and advisory support. But we now realise that the involvement of the private sector will be critical to the recovery. We have developed a number of incentives for the private sector: tax and customs benefits, capital investment compensation programmes, grants, guarantees and technical assistance from the European Commission under the Ukraine Facility. And the infrastructure of war risk insurance from the EBRD, DFC, MIGA, international export credit agencies,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine.

The RDNA4 assessment shows that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached USD 176 billion, up from USD 152 billion last year. The housing sector, transport, energy, trade and industry, and education were the most affected. It is estimated that 13% of the total housing stock was damaged or destroyed, representing 2.5 million households. In the energy sector, the number of damaged or destroyed facilities increased by 70% from the RDNA3 estimate. Approximately 72% of the damage is in the regions closest to the contact line – Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions – as well as in Kyiv region.

Marta Kos, EU Commissioner for Enlargement, said that the assessment highlighted the extraordinary damage that russia had caused to Ukraine. She added that the EU was already supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery by mobilizing more private investment through the Ukraine Investment Framework and helping the country to integrate deeper into the EU single market. According to her, this would be key to Ukraine’s recovery and would create new opportunities for Ukrainian and European businesses.

The biggest needs are for reconstruction and recovery:

• in the housing sector – almost USD 84 billion;
• in the transport sector – almost USD 78 billion;
• in the energy and mining sector – almost USD 68 billion;
• in trade and industry – over 64 billion US dollars;
• in agriculture – over USD 55 billion.

Separately, the cost of clearing the destruction and debris in these sectors and managing the consequences is USD 13 billion.

Antonella Bassani, World Bank Vice President of the Europe and Central Asia Region, mentioned that Ukraine and its people continued to demonstrate incredible resilience in the face of widespread damage, untold suffering, and personal loss. She noted that the updated assessment reflected Ukraine’s progress in both physical and economic recovery, the progress in implementing an ambitious reform program, and the significant recovery needs that remained.

The assessment identifies and excludes needs of more than USD 13 billion in eight sectors that Ukraine has already met with the support of partners and the private sector. Thus, according to the Government, in 2024, at least USD 1.2 billion was allocated from the state budget and donors to restore the housing sector. More than 2,000 km of roads, motorways, and other roads of national importance have been repaired.

The private sector has also joined in. Many companies have begun investing in repairs and resilience, including through distributed generation solutions such as gas-fired power plants, solar panels, and biogas. According to preliminary estimates by IFC, private business could potentially meet one-third of the total needs, a significant addition to public investment.

Matthias Schmale, UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine, stated that the true cost of war was measured in human lives and livelihoods. He emphasised that, in addition to direct aid, there was a need to create opportunities for the people of Ukraine to rebuild their lives with dignity. This meant investing in decent jobs, education, healthcare, and prioritising the outreach to vulnerable groups such as women and girls, children, displaced people, Roma communities, war veterans, and people with disabilities. He highlighted that the way forward required strengthened partnerships, reduced risks to investment, and an unwavering commitment from everyone not only to help institutions but also to support the rebuilding of the social fabric of war-affected communities.

The RDNA4 also emphasises that prioritising investment in recovery and reconstruction will be crucial for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and its long-term sustainability. These efforts are aimed at rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, reviving the economy and strengthening institutions in line with EU standards.

Background

The RDNA4 (Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment) conducted by the World Bank, the Government of Ukraine, the European Union and the United Nations builds on the previous three joint assessments and takes into account additional analytical research. The report incorporates the “build back better” (BBB) approach and the principles of green, sustainable and inclusive reconstruction.

As with previous assessments, RDNA4 analyses the impact of the war on vulnerable groups (displaced people, veterans, people with disabilities, etc.) and identifies short-term recovery priorities for 2025. It is aligned with reforms and investments under the Ukraine Facility and Ukraine’s integration into the EU.