In light of current global trends and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government revised the forecast of Ukraine's economic and social development for 2020.
The major changes in the outlook are the result of a recession in the global economy and the introduction of large-scale measures to contain and combat COVID-19, both in Ukraine and in most countries.
As a result, Ukraine's GDP forecast for the current year has been revised – the GDP growth is expected to fall by 3.9% compared to a 3.7% increase previously projected before the global crisis. The unemployment rate will make up 9.4% against the projected 8.1%, and the fall in real wages will be 0.3%.
Meanwhile, economic growth is expected to recover from the second half of the year and accelerate in the coming years. Among the reasons are the high demand in the world for the products of domestic agro-industrial complex, a much more stable banking system compared to previous crisis episodes, lower prices for imported energy products, continued structural reforms in cooperation with international partners.
The average hryvnia exchange rate is projected at UAH 29.5 per US dollar (compared to UAH 27 per US dollar forecast in October 2019). The rise in consumer prices will only temporarily accelerate to 8.7% (compared to 5.5% in the previous forecast), and will return to the target 5% next year.
The updated Key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine's economic and social development for 2020 will be used in the process of revision of the State Budget for 2020.