Taras Vysotskyi: The 2026 grain harvest is projected to reach 60.4 million tonnes

In 2026, Ukraine will be fully self-sufficient in major grain crops. Farmers are expected to harvest approximately 60.4 million tonnes of grain—a figure nearly on par with last year’s.

In particular, there will be several times more wheat on the market than is needed for domestic consumption: with a demand of 6.4 million tonnes, the total supply, including reserves, will amount to about 26.6 million tonnes. This allows not only to guarantee the country’s food security but also to maintain its export potential.

This was announced by Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotskyi during the “Bread Industry 2026” Forum, which for the fourth consecutive year has brought together the state and the business to coordinate efforts ahead of the new marketing year.

According to him, this year’s spring planting campaign is more challenging due to the cold spring and waterlogged soils, which have led to delays in sowing late-season crops.

“First and foremost, weather risks currently affect corn, as this crop is most dependent on sowing dates, temperature conditions, and moisture levels during the growing season. At the same time, the forecast for wheat and barley is quite realistic and reliable for ensuring food security, and the agricultural sector is demonstrating its ability to adapt even under difficult conditions,” noted Taras Vysotskyi.

According to preliminary estimates, the harvest of major crops may amount to:

wheat – approximately 22.4 million tonnes;

barley – approximately 4.7 million tonnes;

corn – approximately 31.6 million tonnes.

The forum paid special attention to the availability of food-grade wheat suitable for processing into flour. Its production is projected at about 9.1 million tonnes, and together with carryover stocks, total supply could reach 11.7 million tonnes.

Therefore, the Government’s objective is to ensure a balance between exports and domestic market needs so that processors have a stable supply of high-quality food wheat. To achieve this, it is important to continuously monitor the grain balance, coordinate with market participants, and build sufficient reserves to ensure the uninterrupted operation of the baking industry.

At the same time, the industry continues to shift its focus from raw material exports to the production of higher-value-added products. Domestic processing and exports of flour, baked goods, frozen products, and semi-finished goods are on the rise.

The HoReCa and Bake-off segments—frozen baked goods and ready-to-eat products for restaurants, hotels, cafes, and retail chains—are also actively developing. These formats demonstrate stable demand both in the domestic market and abroad.

Forum participants noted that in recent years, the industry has significantly strengthened its operational resilience: businesses have adapted their logistics, invested in autonomous solutions, and learned to respond quickly to market changes. This now enables the industry not only to maintain stability but also to actively develop processing and finished product lines with higher added value.