The Ukrainian economy continues to grow, despite Polish carriers blocking land border crossings for road freight last month. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth in November was around 4% [±2%] compared to November last year. As a result, the economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in January-November 2023 compared to the same period last year.
“In November 2023, the almost month-long blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border by Polish road carriers was the main negative factor for exporting manufacturers and for producers dependent on imported raw materials delivered by road. At the same time, the operation of the Ukrainian sea corridor helped to partially compensate for the economic losses caused by the blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border. This was particularly beneficial for agricultural and metallurgical producers, metal ore mining companies and railway operators. According to our estimates, the positive factors in November slightly outweighed the balance of impact on GDP, and as a result, according to the preliminary operational estimates of the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth was 4%,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine.
Consumer price growth also slowed to 0.5% in November (from 0.8% in the previous month), according to the State Statistics Service. Overall, the annual inflation rate continued to fall, from 5.3% in the previous month to 5.1% in November. This is even lower than in some EU countries. According to Eurostat, in November consumer inflation was 8% in the Czech Republic, 7.7% in Hungary, 7.4% in Iceland, 6.9% in Slovakia/Romania, 6.3% in Poland and 5.5% in Croatia/Bulgaria.
“Currently, the moderate dynamics of consumer price growth is comparable to the inflation rate in European countries whose economies are not experiencing war shocks. This is an additional confirmation of the integrity and stability of the domestic economy. The current inflationary trend and the factors influencing it indicate that expectations of low inflation are justified,” summarised Yuliia Svyrydenko.