• Українською
  • Ihor Petrashko: GDP in IV quarter of 2020 increased by 0.8% as compared to the previous year’s showing
    Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, posted 15 February 2021 17:16

    As was expected, in the IV quarter the slowdown in the decline in GDP continued. According to the data of the State Statistics Service, the real GDP in the IV quarter of 2020 decreased by 0.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, and, compared to the third quarter of 2020, increased by 0.8% (taking into account the seasonal factor).

    "In general, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture on the basis of the State Statistics Service, the fall in GDP in 2020 was 4.2% (p/p), which was significantly better than the pessimistic expectations of most experts and quite close to the Government's forecast (4.8%), which was approved back in March 2020 and included in the budget," commented the Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine Ihor Petrashko.

    Forecast for 2020 by organizations, change in GDP, % compared to the previous year

    Government forecast (as of July 2020)

    IMF
    (as of December 2020)

    World Bank
    (Ukrainian economic update,
    October 2020)

    NBU
    (as of October 2020)

    Dragon Capital
    (as of September 2020)

    Fitch Ratings
    (as of September 2020)

    ICU
    (as of November 2020)

    EBRD
    (as of October 2020)

    -4,8

    -5,0

    -5,5

    -6,0

    -5,5

    -6,5

    -5,0

    -5,5

     

    "Preliminary statistical reporting indicators for 2020 show that Ukraine has withstood the test of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," the Minister added.

    The main factor in suspending the fall in GDP in Q4 of 2020, on the part of the demand was as follows:

    consumer demand, the expansion of which took place in conditions, in particular, of an increase in the minimum (from September 1, 2020 up to UAH 5,000) and, accordingly, the average monthly wage (according to the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture on the basis of the State Statistics Service in Q4 2020 as compared to the IV quarter of 2019 was 9.6%);

    demand of the general government sector, the expansion of which took place both through the implementation of state support for business and the population, and through the implementation of the program "Great Construction".

    Speaking about the production sector, in Q4 of 2020, all leading economic activities showed positive trends, that is mainly due to the adaptation of most economic entities to work in the new difficult conditions and the ongoing recovery in world markets.

    The restraining factors were the losses incurred by economic entities and low investment activity in the real sector of the economy.

    GDP of European countries and Ukraine,% to the corresponding period of the previous year at the link https://bit.ly/3pnKtd8 .