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  • Ukraine's recovery needs estimated at USD 486 billion: Updated RDNA3

    The Government of Ukraine, together with the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations, has published a report on the updated joint assessment of damage and needs resulting from the large-scale invasion of russia (Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, RDNA3).

    The Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development coordinated a Government's team to assess the damage and set priorities, as well as determine projects for 2024.

    According to the report, the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine over the next decade is estimated at USD 486 billion, which is about 2.8 times Ukraine's nominal GDP for 2023. This year's figure is also 18% higher than the previous RDNA2 estimate of USD 411 billion as of 24 February 2023.

    "Joint work with international partners allows us to draw up an accurate picture of losses and recovery needs. We have a clear understanding of the priorities and cost of recovery in 2024.

    The findings of the report will form the basis for planning documents and prioritisation methodologies. In particular, the priorities identified in the RDNA3 will be integrated into the action plan of the State Regional Development Strategy (SRDS). In addition, DREAM - the Digital Restoration Ecosystem for Accountable Management will provide labelling of projects that meet the needs of the RDNA, thus allowing for better prioritisation of critical restoration projects and providing them with priority support," said Oleksandr Kubrakov, Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine - Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine.

    The RDNA3 report covers the damage caused during the almost two-year period from the full-scale russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 to 31 December 2023. According to the report, direct losses in Ukraine have now reached almost USD 152 billion, with housing, transport, trade and industry, energy and agriculture identified as the most affected sectors. As in last year's report, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Kyiv regions were identified as the most affected.

    Across the country, 10% of the housing stock was either damaged or destroyed. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam in June 2023 led to catastrophic environmental consequences and exacerbated the problems already faced by Ukrainians struggling to access housing, water, food, medical services, etc.

    Ukraine's key needs for 2024 include recovery in the following areas:

    • housing and utilities - USD 3.1 billion;
    • transport and logistics - USD 2.3 billion;
    • energy - USD 2.7 billion;
    • social infrastructure - USD 2.4 billion;
    • industry and services - USD 3.6 billion;
    • cross-sectoral priorities - USD 1.2 billion.

    According to the updated estimate, Ukraine will need USD 15.3 billion for critical recovery projects in 2024 alone, with a focus on supporting the private sector, restoring social infrastructure and utilities, energy, transport, and housing. Around USD 5.5 billion of this funding was provided both through the support from Ukraine's international partners and from Ukraine's domestic resources. Meanwhile, about USD 10.5 billion has not yet been funded.

    The implementation of recovery measures envisages reforms in line with EU policies and standards and in support of the Building Back Better principle. In addition, the priorities set out in the RDNA3 will be integrated into the medium-term budget planning process. This will ensure timely and predictable funding and capacity building for the public sector. It will also allow executing agencies to plan and manage comprehensive recovery efforts.

    Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) is available at the link.

    Since the last RDNA2, the Government of Ukraine, with the support of its partners, has addressed some of the most urgent recovery needs. These include the repair and reconstruction of damaged buildings, debris removal, and the provision of temporary shelter. In the transport sector, emergency repairs were carried out on more than 2,000 km of motorways, highways and other national roads, and more than 200 km of railway infrastructure was restored. In the education sector, about 500 educational institutions and more than 3,500 bomb shelters were rebuilt.

    Ukraine's recovery needs estimated at USD 486 billion: Updated RDNA3 Ukraine's recovery needs estimated at USD 486 billion: Updated RDNA3