The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has adjusted its estimate of GDP decline in 2022 to 29.2%. The previous estimate of economic contraction was 30.4% [±2%]. The change came after the State Statistics Service released preliminary data on Ukraine’s GDP in Q4 2022.

“Taking into account the better dynamics of the fourth quarter, the Ministry of Economy estimates that, based on the State Statistics Service’s data, the GDP decline was less than 30% and amounted to 29.2% at year-end. This was made possible thanks to the coordinated work of the Government and Parliament, assistance from international partners, and the high adaptability of businesses and households. All of this allowed us to hold the economic front and continue to move towards victory,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine.

However, there are still negative trends that prevent the economy from starting to recover. Experts from the Ministry of Economy note depressed household consumption, which was mainly focused on the purchase of essential goods and services.

Other current trends include the ongoing decline in investment activity due to the war, which was partially offset by the forced investment by businesses and the Government in the purchase and installation of a large number of alternative power sources. Major capital repairs of energy infrastructure facilities, restoration of destroyed housing and road infrastructure, made possible by international financial assistance and further expansion of financial support programs for businesses, also played a positive role.

Experts note the continued negative pressure on export and import operations due to russia’s artificial delays of ships within the “grain initiative”. However, foreign economic activity was supported by the expansion of logistics routes to the EU countries and the effect of an EU Regulation, in particular, the abolition of duties and quotas on certain products.