• Українською
  • Ministry of Economy preliminarily estimates GDP decline in 2022 at 30.4%
    Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, posted 05 January 2023 09:41

    The decline in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [±2%], an improvement over previous forecasts. This was reported by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.

    “During 2022, Ukraine’s economy suffered the largest losses, costs and damages in the history of its independence that were caused by russia, which on February 24 scaled up its terror, started in 2014, along the entire length of the common border and from the territory of belarus and the occupied Crimea.

    In turn, the successes of the Ukrainian defense forces on the battlefield, the coordinated work of the Government and business, the indomitable spirit of the people, the speed of restoration of destroyed/damaged critical infrastructure by domestic agencies, as well as systematic financial support from international partners allowed us to hold the economic front and continue to move towards victory,” said First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yuliia Svyrydenko.

    According to the preliminary estimate of the Ministry’s analysts (using indirect calculation methods and modeling tools), based on the State Statistics Service’s operational estimate of real GDP for 3 quarters of 2022 (a decrease by 15.1% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021, by 37.2% in the second quarter of 2022, by 30.8% in the third quarter of 2022, respectively), the GDP decline in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [± 2%] (3.4% growth in 2021). This is objectively the worst result since independence, but it is better than expected by most experts at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, when GDP decline estimates ranged from 40 to 50% and deeper.

    At the same time, in December the GDP decline was estimated at 34% [±2%], which is slightly better than the estimates for November (drop of 37% [±2%]) (respectively, decline of 35.5% [±2%] in the fourth quarter), given some stabilization of the situation with energy supply after the shelling in November. However, continued terrorist missile attacks from the russian federation caused some damage (in particular, to energy infrastructure), which further weighed on business sentiment and activity.